After more than two months since the prices tanked during what seemed like another start of the crypto winter, the BTC price is once again making strong upward movements. As the bear market looks more a part of the past, analysts and investors are wondering where could this rally take the cryptocurrency, but with it, the rest of the crypto market as well.
Historically, these projections have always been a bigger chance to end up looking stupid than smart, thanks to the simple and undaunting capability of bitcoin to sway up and down violently. The same instability is present even when the prices are going up as they are doing at the present moment.
However, this time around, there are two main factors that seem to be strongly correlating with the same price movement – in the chaotic world of cryptocurrencies, this is not often the case. Both present a sensible explanation about why bitcoin’s price is climbing at this particular moment and how these impact the mind of a regular trader or investor trying to figure out what scenarios the future might be bringing.
There is a bitcoin halving event coming soon and this, like always, cannot leave anyone in the community uninterested. This year, the same event will likely take place on May 12 and all eyes are on the period after it. The procedure will bring down the mining reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per every mined block on the network’s blockchain. Some believe – somewhat naively – that the same process will be repeated in the markets as well. This means that a growing number of participants in the market will expect a strong movement upwards once the halving has taken place.
In fact, there are many who believe that halving will result in a price of bitcoin token that is twice what it will be before the same event. Chances for this are really slim and they are even smaller if investors expect that the same thing occurs in a linear fashion. There is a big possibility that the event will push the price up immediately after the news that the system completed the halving in a proper manner and that there are no issues. Also, the price will rise before the halving because the investors will want to stock up on BTC just in case.
Similar to esports and many other modern phenomena, the hype is often just as important as the actual occurrences. However, believing that the BTC token will easily hit 20,000 USD because of halving is wishful thinking. Still, it is a major factor behind the rise of the price and overall, the rising difficulty of mining will make the token more baseline expensive (which can but does not have to reflect itself in the price).
Seems obvious but the instability around the Coronavirus is a big factor in the rise of bitcoin. The issue with the outbreak is not so much its direct biological effect on the sick patients, but the fact that it is taking place in China, one of the most important – if not crucial – nations for the cryptocurrency field and bitcoin in particular. Simply put, the outbreak is creating a demand for bitcoin in China on a level of yuan devaluation of 2015. Or at least, that’s how the situation seems to be developing. Currently, the situation with the Coronavirus remains unstable, even though millions went back to work recently after a prolonged New Years’ vacation time.
However, the crisis is far from over and the spread of the virus continues both in China and elsewhere. While the dangers it possesses are not on the level of the 2002 SARS epidemic, there is a higher chance of contagion that could first make a strong foothold in the overpopulated poor regions of the world. From there, it could spread globally and wreak havoc on the global economy. The same prospects are clearly a sign for many investors to see a shelter and move at least a part of their portfolio into bitcoin.
Prolonged Global Insecurity
Finally, the underlying factor between both of these is the clear underlying instability that has been impacting the world for some time now, arguably ever since the watershed moments of the US election of Donald Trump and the Brexit vote. These events happened in 2016 and it still seems that the world is trying to find a way to deal with them and their fallout.
The start of 2020 did not bode any better and with things like the extremely dangerous crisis between Iran and the US, many are certain that this year will not end on a high note in the economic terms. Here, both the halving and Coronavirus serve to make a point – the first one is a testament to the bitcoin’s underlying tech stability and resilience, while the other showcases the rising tide of global problems that have to make serious landfall sooner or later. All of this equates to a clear buy signal for many investors, including those who are hedging their portfolios and those who are simply gunning for a quick return on investment.
Stabilizing the Rise
Now, the thing that bitcoin really needs to do as a network is to stabilize the volatility that follows the upward motion. As long as the movement stays erratic and drastic at the same time, potential new users will continue to see both BTC and the wider cryptocurrency ecosystem as one big gamble. But, the change is that they at least do not think that the casino will vanish overnight.
Also, the logical question is what happens when bitcoin price does move over 11,000 USD and how can traders and investors prepare for that? Like always, the answer is anyone’s guess. While the previously mentioned factors do play into the equation, there is no way of knowing how they will perform or behave when weeks turn into months. As these elements of the big BTC price equation become better known – for better or worse – the price movements will once again slide into the unknown territory.