Opinion The Potential for a 2019 BTC Bull Run

The Potential for a 2019 BTC Bull Run

March 16, 2019

Bitcoin price has been going south for more than a year now and this left many people feeling like BTC on the market – mainly down. The first big crash that came after the sky-high movements in 2017 was the true shocker and the wave that pushed out many weekend traders. It also produced a huge cull of those who were investing in altcoins as well as those same projects.

Not many of the less-stable cryptocurrency project managed to survive the same commotion. Many of these ended up on life support and in dire need of finance that most likely will never come. Naturally, this left everyone else who decided to stay in the BTC game wondering when will the fortune change for the network.

Currently, many are in the state of mind that demands no prediction – after all, most of those were proven wrong – including the most negative ones at that. But, at the same time, others are certain that 2019 holds the promise of nothing short of a new and strong bull run!

Alignment of the Market Factors

Fundstrat’s Global Advisors expert Tom Lee believes that the cryptocurrency will see a big upward movement in this year. This prediction has some downsides, especially because Lee believed that in 2018 BTC price would climb to $25,000. However, he now claims that a range of market factors changed their trajectory. Now, they point towards a positive price growth, especially because there is good news streaming from the institutional side.

This all, according to Lee, trickles down towards a strong chance that the bull market for bitcoin would materialize in 2019. In his view, this will be the year all about BTC repair. In 2018, the market is in strong headwind that hindered any progress almost ever since the year got to a start. Now, the USD is not surging as it did in the previous year and the same headwind has mostly disappeared.

Summer Window

Lee hinted that a sustained bull run could be expected in the summer of 2019. He set August as a potential date for this. According to him, BTC would be able to cross the 200-day moving average. Of course, this would be possible if the cryptocurrency was able to maintain its price in the $4,000 range.

A successful 200-day MA would be able to recover the price from mid-November 2018. At that point, some believe that one of the key reasons for the drop in price value was the so-called civil war between the bitcoin cash fraction. This uncertainty caused the prices to quickly spiral down. Lee hopes that the bull run would be able to boost the value and compensate any losses from 2018.

Of course, he did not say where the bull run would take the bitcoin price. Right now, even a return to $10,000 would be a huge success. But his views are not universally recognized as the most likely alternative for the upcoming 12 months.

Tight Range of Trading

Other analysts are certain that bitcoin will continue to trade in a tight range. Currently, that range spans the domain between $3,000 and $5,000 at its most distant peaks. Of course, this scenario would be possible only if there were no huge price drops for any reason. This might be harder than it sounds.

Digital currencies, like esports and many other dynamic ventures based purely in the digital field, can move rapidly in either direction. This is why a tight range of trading would be something that many in the crypto domain would gladly welcome. For people who hold this belief, the option of a stable bitcoin, even with drastically lower prices, is something they would gladly accept.

Institutional Developments

The ace in the sleeve for the bull run that Lee and other foresee lies in the option of the institutional development. Some immensely positive changes took place in this field and the same could have the momentum to ignite a full bull run. This news includes Fidelity and its digital custody, Bakkt digital currency exchange and other high-profile ventures. Lee even suggested that some pension funds might be ready to invest money in digital currencies.

Mainstream investors are more accepting of cryptocurrencies, in spite of some strong voices like that of Warren Buffett being completely dismissive of BTC. As an asset class, bitcoin is still a novel thing, in spite of its 10-year track record. But, the option of substantial growth in terms of incoming investment and that from institutions, not individuals might be readying the domain for a big leap forward.

Altcoin Implications

If the forecast of the bull run in the summer months turns out to be true, there could be important repercussions for the altcoin market as well. After the hit most of them took in 2018, some see a resurgence in the same field. Some fringe factors point towards this switch.

For example, Google Trends is showing altcoins as a search term to grow in popularity. Amongst these, the most famous ones, including bitcoin cash, litecoin, and ethereum are showing a stable rise in value. Ethereum, for example, which recently completed its successful hard fork, was able to have small bull breakouts on several occasions in 2019.

This happened after the cryptocurrency slipped below $100 for the first time in years. A similar thing is happening to other even smaller altcoins. Binance Coin, which is currently the seventh on the list of cryptocurrencies by market cap, saw its tripping in value over the previous 90 days. Right now its value is $15 which is something that many would deem completely impossible just a year ago.

Hopes and Fears

The hopes for a bull run in 2019 are tied into the fears that the volatility, which is currently low, would once again peak. This is the paradox of the crypto domain, especially bitcoin. If Lee is right and bitcoin will break out in is value, the volatility will go up once again.

This will be ammo for the arguments to those who believe BTC will never be a valid alternative to fiat currencies. As this see-saw continues, some are hoping that the network will, if nothing else, continue to grow in user adoption.